The Effects of Poverty, Average Years of Schooling, and Expected Years of Schooling on the Net Enrolment Rate for Senior High School and Equivalent Levels in the Sulawesi and Maluku Regions, 2018–2023

Abstract

The Net Enrollment Rate (NER) for senior high school and equivalent levels in Indonesia still shows disparities, particularly in Maluku and Sulawesi, where rates fall below the national average, posing a challenge to national development. Poverty rates, average years of schooling, and expected years of schooling are estimated to influence the Net Enrollment Rate (NER) for senior high school and equivalent levels. The method used is panel data regression analysis because the indicators under study exhibit numerical instability and changes take time to occur. The estimation approaches used in the panel data analysis are the Common Effects Model (CEM), the Fixed Effects Model (FEM), and the Random Effects Model (REM). The best model was selected using the Chow test, the Hausman test, and the Lagrange Multiplier test. The test results indicate that the Random Effects Model is the best fit. Based on the estimation results, the percentage of the poor population has a negative and significant effect on NER, while the percentage of the poor population has a positive and significant effect on NER. The variable expected years of schooling does not have a significant partial effect at the 5% significance level. Simultaneously, the independent variables have a significant effect on NER with an adjusted R-value of 0.4105, which means that the panel regression model indicates that the independent variables account for 41.05% of the variation in the dependent variable, while the remaining 58.95% is influenced by factors other than these three variables.