Implementation of the Hierarchial Clustering Method to Predict the Number of Domestic Tourist Trips in East Java Province

Dara Agustina; Muayyad

doi:10.35580/variansiunm463

Dara Agustina Institut Teknologi dan Bisnis STIKOM Bali
Muayyad Polytechnic of Bali

DOI: https://doi.org/10.35580/variansiunm463

Keywords: Tourism, Domestic Tourist, Cluster, ARIMA Model

Abstract

Indonesian tourism represents a wealth of natural and cultural assets that play a vital role in boosting state revenue. Data from Statistics Indonesia indicates a shift in the travel patterns of domestic tourists following the COVID-19 pandemic in 2022. East Java Province emerged as the primary destination for domestic travelers within Java. The province comprises 29 Regencies and 9 Cities, each offering its own unique tourism appeal. In this study, the travel patterns of domestic tourists across these Regencies and Cities were categorized into three clusters. Subsequently, ARIMA modeling was employed to forecast the volume of domestic tourist trips in East Java for each cluster. This information provides an estimate of future domestic travel activity in the Province, thereby assisting the government in considering improvements to accessibility and tourism management, as well as the development of new tourism offerings. The ultimate goal is to maintain the quality of the tourism sector and foster a continued desire among tourists to revisit the region.

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