Pemodelan dan Prediksi Pola Musiman Menggunakan Holt-Winters

Thesya Atarezcha Pangruruk; Nalto Batty Mangiri; Esra  Rombeallo; Wiwit Pura  Nurmayanti

doi:10.35580/variansiunm391

Thesya Atarezcha Pangruruk Universitas Mulawarman
Nalto Batty Mangiri Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika, Universitas Negeri Manado, Indonesia
Esra Rombeallo Program Studi Statistika, Universitas Mulawarman, Indonesia
Wiwit Pura Nurmayanti Program Studi Statistika, Universitas Mulawarman, Indonesia

DOI: https://doi.org/10.35580/variansiunm391

Keywords: Holt-Winters, peramalan, Curah Hujan

Abstract

Samarinda City, with its tropical climate, experiences significant variations in rainfall throughout the year. This instability has the potential to cause impacts such as flooding, disruptions in the agricultural sector, and damage to infrastructure. This study aims to analyze and forecast the seasonal rainfall patterns in Samarinda City by applying the Holt Winters Exponential Smoothing method based on a multiplicative model. Monthly rainfall data were analyzed to identify stationarity properties in both mean and variance. The results indicate that the data are stationary in the mean but not in the variance, thus justifying the use of the Holt-Winters Multiplicative Exponential Smoothing model. Parameter estimation yielded alpha , beta , and gamma values of 1 each, with a MAPE of 50%, indicating a moderate level of accuracy. Despite the relatively high error rate, the model remains effective in illustrating seasonal patterns, which can be useful for preliminary water resource management planning in the region

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