Perbandingan Metode ARIMA dan Single Exponential Smoothing dalam Peramalan Nilai Ekspor Kakao Indonesia
Abstract
Indonesia is a country with an open economy, one of the sources of foreign exchange needed by a country with an open economy is exports. Cocoa is one of Indonesia's main export commodities that makes an important contribution to the country's economy, but the value of Indonesian cocoa exports fluctuates, that is there are inconsistent changes from time to time. The purpose of this study is to determine the results of forecasting the value of Indonesian cocoa exports, as well as to determine the best method for forecasting. This research compares the ARIMA and Single Exponential Smoothing methods to determine the best forecasting method. The best method is selected based on the smallest MAPE value. Based on the results of data analysis, the best forecasting model using the ARIMA method is the ARIMA (1, 0, 1) model, which has a MAPE value of 10.38060%. Meanwhile, the best forecasting model using the Single Exponential Smoothing method is with α = 0.16, which has a MAPE value of 10.92874%. So that the best method for forecasting the value of Indonesian cocoa exports is the ARIMA method
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